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| 22/12 2013 09:33
The value of a given dog is equal to Pr(that dog wins) * (that dog's odds) All we need are the probabilities for each dog. That's a challenging task especially with those "fallers". It would take me too much time. I'll write a program to spit out the probabilities, stay tuned for an edit. **Edit** Copy/pasted from program output, the result of 10 million "races": P(A) = 0.3578729 P(B) = 0.2015431 P(C) = 0.1388345 P(D) = 0.1385491 P(E) = 0.0880294 P(F) = 0.0496806 P(G) = 0.0237012 P(H) = 0.0017892 Since C and D really have the same probabilities, we'll average those two together to obtain 0.1386918 Edit -- before, I made an algebraic mistake and then repeated it with each line, hence the positive values which shouldn't have been. It's now corrected. The values are as follows: A = 2(.3578729) - (1-.3578729) = +.0736 B = 4(.2015431) - (1-.2015431) = +0.0077 C = 6(.1386918) - (1-.1386918) = -0.029 D = -0.029 E = 8(.0880294) - (1-.0880294) = -.2077 F = 10(.0496806) - (1-.0496806) = -0.4535 G = 16(.0237012) - (1-.0237012) = -0.597 H = 25(.0017892) - (1-.0017892) = -0.953 If the payouts are really 1:1 and 3:1 and 5:1 etc. instead of 2:1, 3:1 and 6:1, then all the horses are negative value. Either way, Horse A is the best one to bet on. Correct me if I'm wrong about faller cards: - Each horse has an equal chance of being spun? - If the spinner lands on an already fallen horse, do you spin again until a horse is eliminated?
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