The value of a given dog is equal to Pr(that dog wins) * (that dog's odds)
All we need are the probabilities for each dog.
That's a challenging task especially with those "fallers". It would take me too much time.
I'll write a program to spit out the probabilities, stay tuned for an edit.
**Edit**
Copy/pasted from program output, the result of 10 million "races":
P(A) = 0.3578729
P(B) = 0.2015431
P(C) = 0.1388345
P(D) = 0.1385491
P(E) = 0.0880294
P(F) = 0.0496806
P(G) = 0.0237012
P(H) = 0.0017892
Since C and D really have the same probabilities, we'll average those two together to obtain 0.1386918
Edit -- before, I made an algebraic mistake and then repeated it with each line, hence the positive values which shouldn't have been. It's now corrected.
The values are as follows:
A = 2(.3578729) - (1-.3578729) = +.0736
B = 4(.2015431) - (1-.2015431) = +0.0077
C = 6(.1386918) - (1-.1386918) = -0.029
D = -0.029
E = 8(.0880294) - (1-.0880294) = -.2077
F = 10(.0496806) - (1-.0496806) = -0.4535
G = 16(.0237012) - (1-.0237012) = -0.597
H = 25(.0017892) - (1-.0017892) = -0.953
If the payouts are really 1:1 and 3:1 and 5:1 etc. instead of 2:1, 3:1 and 6:1, then all the horses are negative value.
Either way, Horse A is the best one to bet on.
Correct me if I'm wrong about faller cards:
- Each horse has an equal chance of being spun?
- If the spinner lands on an already fallen horse, do you spin again until a horse is eliminated?

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Answer #1| 22/12 2013 09:3377 %